The Problem with History

The problem with history is that it’s “one and done.” There are no Mulligans. We can’t go back to Munich in 1938, erase Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler, and obtain a different outcome. We are stuck with the outcome we got: millions dead, vast swaths of destruction across continents, the first and only (thank goodness) use of an atomic weapon, countless lives upended, families shattered - the list goes on and on.

But after two world wars in one century, we (meaning those of us who came after WWII) also received a great gift from brilliant and prescient leaders: decades without a world war. They created an international system that rewarded eschewing land grabs and world wars. Yes, there were wars, there were genocides, there was the Cold War with its subjugation of the countries of Eastern Europe. And, yes, the global North continued its misuse of the global South - and that is a subject for another essay. But there was an era of relative peace and certainly progress on many fronts. And even in those far off corners of the global South, the lives of some were improved - again a subject that will be debated over and over certainly within my own mind. We learned (or those post WWII leaders taught us) the value of alliances, of agreements, of a rules based international order, of credible deterrence.

And then Vladimir Putin decided to rebuild the Russian empire, possibly the Soviet empire. He started the first major war in Europe since the end of WWII. He is trying to use force to redraw international borders. He is violating not only international law, but the very Budapest Agreement guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty that Russia signed. We can all be forgiven if we are hearing echoes of Munich, of “peace in our time.” BUT…

But what if German Chancellor Merz pulled the American president aside and told him about Munich in 1938? What if he told his US interlocutor that an enduring peace, not just any peace, is the goal? What if all the Europeans told the American that we were headed into WWIII not if we stood up to Putin, but precisely if we gave Putin what he is demanding now? Because we’ve seen this story play out before: Hitler didn’t stop after Munich. He just kept going. What if the Europeans told the American he had the chance to change history, to recreate an enduring peace in Europe? If those things happened and if the American listened and heeded the sage advice of our European partners, their rushed trips to Washington would have been successful. Initial reports are, I must admit, not terribly promising. Time will tell.